民眾黨的未來會如何發展?以親民黨為例。

民眾黨的未來發展面臨著一系列挑戰。以親民黨的例子來看，在2000年的總統大選中，由於興票案的影響，獨立參選的宋楚瑜最終以極小的差距輸給陳水扁。為避免支持者的力量分散，親民黨應運而生，並在隔年的國會選舉中贏得46席。然而，隨著2004年的連宋組合，親民黨的政治明星紛紛回歸到國民黨，開始走向泡沫化。

其他政黨的例子也顯示台灣政黨要維持發展，需要的是組織和人才培養，而不僅僅是單純的資金。台聯曾在李登輝的支持下在立委選舉中取得不錯的成績，但隨著李登輝與陳水扁的矛盾，雙方分道揚鑣，最終解散。楊天生的第三勢力則試圖打破台中黑派和白派的長期資源壟斷，但最終失敗告終。

民眾黨是一人政黨，以柯文哲為首。雖然柯文哲在口才和政治論述方面遜於資歷豐富的宋楚瑜，但在台北市長選舉中的成功令他成為政壇注目的人物。然而，由於與民進黨的矛盾，民眾黨只能吸收一部分國民黨的票倉以及那些想投廢票的選民。在2024年的總統大選中，雖然民進黨的鐵票保持相對穩定，但反對黨的票數卻佔六成，其中有26%被柯文哲吸引。儘管如此，與親民黨早期的表現相比，民眾黨仍有相當大的差距。

未來，民眾黨的選票可能會逐漸減少，除非能夠培養或爭取到年輕的優秀政治人物。否則，很難避免被藍綠兩黨夾殺，最終可能演變成下一個親民黨的命運。

The future development of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) faces a series of challenges. Taking the example of the PFP, in the 2000 presidential election, Due to the impact of the Xing Vote case, independent candidate James Soong ultimately lost to Chen Shui-bian by a very narrow margin. In order to prevent the dispersion of support, the PFP was founded, winning 46 seats in the following year's parliamentary elections. However, with the formation of the KMT-PFP alliance in 2004, political stars of the PFP began returning to the KMT, marking the beginning of a decline.

Examples of other parties also demonstrate that for Taiwan's political parties to sustain development, they need organizational and talent cultivation rather than just financial resources. The Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU), initially supported by Lee Teng-hui, achieved initial success in legislative elections. However, due to conflicts between Lee Teng-hui and Chen Shui-bian, the two sides went their separate ways, leading to the dissolution of the TSU without any legislative seats.

The Third Force, led by James Soong, attempted to break the long-term resource monopoly of the factions in Taichung. Despite initial efforts, it ultimately ended in failure.

Taiwan People’s Party, led by Ko Wen-je, is a one-person party. While Ko Wen-je may not match the seasoned political experience of James Soong, his success in the Taipei mayoral election brought him into the political spotlight. However, due to conflicts with the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), the People Party has mainly attracted a portion of the KMT's voter base and those who want to cast protest votes. In the 2024 presidential election, despite the DPP's core support remaining relatively stable, the opposition parties garnered 60% of the votes, with 26% being drawn by Ko Wen-je. Nevertheless, compared to the early achievements of the PFP, the People Party still faces significant challenges.

In the future, Taiwan People’s Party's electoral support may gradually decrease unless it can cultivate or attract talented young politicians. Otherwise, it may find itself caught between the blue and green camps, ultimately experiencing a fate similar to that of the early PFP.

照片:DALLE3