2025年11月21日，俄烏戰爭局勢突然出現多項重大變化，從前線戰況到外交談判均迎來新的關鍵節點，使得衝突走向再度變得複雜而敏感。最受關注的，是俄羅斯宣佈完全控制烏克蘭東部重要戰略城市庫皮揚斯克，而烏克蘭軍隊則首次動用英法提供的“風暴之影”遠程巡航導彈攻擊俄羅斯本土布良斯克州的化工廠。與此同時，美國拋出的“28點和平方案”引發各方激烈反應，使戰爭進入軍事與政治並行角力的新階段。

在軍事領域，俄羅斯方面聲稱，其部隊已於11月20日控制位於哈爾科夫州的庫皮揚斯克。該地自2022年以來一直是烏軍的重要補給與軍事調度中心，具有關鍵交通樞紐地位。俄方進一步表示，他們已包圍約十五個烏軍營級單位，並切斷烏軍在當地的後勤線路。然而烏軍則否認該市陷落，聲稱仍在進行反擊。

除庫皮揚斯克外，俄軍亦在頓涅茨克前線取得推進，紅軍城波克羅夫斯克超過七成區域已被俄方掌控。南部戰線方面，俄軍迫近赫爾松州的胡里艾伯勒與扎波羅熱地區庫班郊區，形成進逼烏南要衝的態勢。俄軍同時升級滑翔炸彈射程並持續空襲烏克蘭能源基礎設施，造成多地再度陷入停電，加劇烏國冬季能源壓力。

烏克蘭則在反擊行動上展現新的策略突破。烏軍首次使用“風暴之影”導彈打擊俄羅斯布良斯克化工廠，該廠是俄羅斯生產導彈推進劑的重要設施。據悉，烏軍先利用大規模無人機群消耗俄羅斯防空力量，再以巡航導彈進行精準打擊，顯示出烏軍在遠程打擊能力上的新進展。與此同時，西方國家也逐步加大援助力度。法國據報計畫向烏克蘭出售100架“陣風”戰機，而希臘則可能向烏國供應美國液化天然氣，以協助緩解能源危機。

惟軍事衝突之餘，外交層面的競逐同樣升溫。美國近期提出一份“28點和平計畫”，其中包括要求烏克蘭裁軍60%、承認克里米亞與頓巴斯為俄羅斯主權領土等極具爭議的條款。消息曝光後，烏克蘭政府立即表明無法接受，認為這些要求已觸及其國家主權底線。烏克蘭總統澤連斯基雖表示願與美方討論細節，但強調任何和平協議都必須符合烏克蘭的“基本原則”。俄羅斯方面則回應稱，如有具體提案，願意重啟談判，但強調軍事行動不會因此暫停。

此外，烏克蘭國內政治局勢也在同日出現動盪。最高拉達宣佈無限期停止運作，此舉被視為戰時政治壓力與內部分歧加劇的信號。另一方面，在阿聯酋的斡旋下，俄烏雙方完成新一輪交換，共有146名戰俘得以返國，成為本輪衝突中為數不多的正面消息。

從戰場到外交，各方在此時刻的行動似乎昭示著戰爭走向正進入新的十字路口。庫皮揚斯克的爭奪、俄烏長程攻擊能力的提升、美國提出的和平方案，以及烏克蘭內部政治震盪，共同構成一幅急速變化且充滿不確定性的局勢圖景。

On November 21, 2025, the Russia-Ukraine war witnessed several major developments, with significant changes emerging both on the battlefield and in diplomatic negotiations. These shifts introduced new complexity and sensitivity to the direction of the conflict. The most closely watched events included Russia’s announcement that it had fully taken control of the strategic eastern Ukrainian city of Kupiansk, and Ukraine’s first use of the UK- and French-supplied Storm Shadow long-range cruise missiles to strike a chemical plant in Russia’s Bryansk region. At the same time, a newly revealed U.S. “28-point peace proposal” sparked intense reactions, marking the start of a new phase in which military confrontation and political maneuvering are unfolding in parallel.

Militarily, Russia claimed on November 20 that its forces had seized complete control of Kupiansk, located in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region. Since 2022, the city has served as an important logistical hub and operational coordination center for Ukrainian forces. Russia further asserted that it had encircled roughly fifteen Ukrainian battalion-level units and severed Kyiv’s local supply lines. Ukraine, however, denied losing the city and stated that fighting and counteroffensives were still ongoing.

Beyond Kupiansk, Russian forces also reported progress on the Donetsk front, where more than 70 percent of the city of Pokrovsk—often referred to as “Red Army City”—was said to be under Russian control. In the south, Russian troops advanced toward Huliaipole in Kherson and reached the outskirts of Kuban in the Zaporizhzhia region, signaling renewed pressure on key strategic positions in southern Ukraine. Moscow also extended the range of its glide bombs and continued its barrage of strikes against Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, causing widespread power outages and deepening the country's energy troubles as winter approaches.

Ukraine, meanwhile, demonstrated new capabilities in its retaliatory operations. Its forces used the Storm Shadow missile for the first time to strike the Bryansk chemical plant, a major facility for manufacturing missile propellant in Russia. Reports indicate that Ukraine launched waves of drones to exhaust Russian air defenses before firing the cruise missile, marking a significant evolution in Kyiv’s long-range strike capabilities. At the same time, Western military and economic support continued to expand. France was reportedly preparing to sell 100 Rafale fighter jets to Ukraine, while Greece was considering supplying U.S.-origin liquefied natural gas to help alleviate Ukraine’s deepening energy shortages.

On the diplomatic front, tensions rose sharply following the U.S. introduction of a “28-point peace plan.” The proposal included highly controversial stipulations, such as requiring Ukraine to reduce its military by 60 percent and formally recognize Crimea and the Donbas region as Russian territory. After the details surfaced, the Ukrainian government immediately rejected the plan, arguing that such terms fundamentally violated the nation’s sovereignty. President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that he was willing to discuss specifics with Washington but emphasized that any peace agreement must align with Ukraine’s “basic principles.” Moscow responded by saying it was open to renewed negotiations if formal proposals were presented, but insisted that military operations would not pause during talks.

Ukraine’s domestic political landscape also showed signs of instability on the same day. The Verkhovna Rada, Ukraine’s parliament, announced an indefinite suspension of its activities, a move widely interpreted as evidence of mounting wartime political pressure and escalating internal divisions. In contrast to the day’s largely grim developments, Russia and Ukraine, with mediation from the United Arab Emirates, completed a prisoner exchange that allowed 146 detainees to return home—a rare piece of positive news amid the ongoing conflict.

From the battlefield to the diplomatic arena, the actions taken by all sides suggest that the war may be approaching a new crossroads. The struggle for Kupiansk, the expansion of long-range strike capabilities by both Russia and Ukraine, the controversial U.S. peace proposal, and signs of political turbulence within Ukraine together depict a rapidly evolving and deeply uncertain strategic landscape.