2025年12月19日，日本央行（Bank of Japan, BOJ）宣布將政策利率上調25個基點，從0.5%提高至0.75%，這一利率水準創下自1995年以來的30年新高，正式宣告日本長期實施的超寬鬆貨幣政策時代的結束。此次加息決議以全票通過，完全符合市場預期，標誌著日本央行在應對通脹和經濟增長挑戰上，採取更為積極的貨幣緊縮策略。

與此同時，日本統計局公佈的數據顯示，2025年11月核心消費者物價指數（CPI）同比上漲3.0%，已連續44個月高於央行設定的2%通脹目標。這一持續高於目標的通脹率，使得日本央行不得不正視貨幣政策正常化的迫切性，以防止通脹進一步固化，並維護金融市場的穩定。

回顧過去兩年的貨幣政策演變，2024年3月，日本央行結束長達數年的負利率政策，將基準利率從-0.1%上調至0%，這是自負利率時代以來的重要轉折。2024年7月，日本央行意外加息至0.25%，引發全球套息交易大規模平倉，國際金融市場短期震盪加劇，也讓投資者開始重新評估日元的避險與投資價值。隨後，2025年1月，日本央行再次加息至0.5%，利率達到17年高位，進一步反映出央行對經濟復甦與通脹持續走高的擔憂。

2025年12月的此次加息將政策利率推升至0.75%，創下近30年新高水平，並伴隨央行暗示未來可能持續加息的信號。市場分析認為，若日本央行繼續提高利率，可能對日元產生升值壓力，進而影響日本的出口競爭力，尤其是對汽車、電子產品及機械製造業等出口型產業造成一定成本上升。然而，利率上升亦有助於抑制過熱的房地產市場、減少投資泡沫，以及改善銀行業的盈利能力。對家庭與企業而言，借貸成本將上升，儲蓄收益增加，消費與投資行為可能出現短期調整。

整體而言，日本央行自2024年以來的多輪加息，反映通脹持續高企與經濟復甦的不平衡態勢。面對全球經濟環境的不確定性以及日元可能升值帶來的出口壓力，日本央行未來的貨幣政策仍需在抑制通脹與支持經濟增長之間尋求微妙平衡，投資者與市場觀察者將密切關注其下一步行動對日元匯率、資本市場以及整體經濟的潛在影響。

On December 19, 2025, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) announced an increase in its policy rate by 25 basis points, raising it from 0.5% to 0.75%. This level marks the highest policy rate since 1995, effectively ending Japan’s long-standing era of ultra-loose monetary policy. The decision was passed unanimously and fully met market expectations, signaling a shift toward a more proactive monetary tightening approach in response to inflationary pressures and economic growth concerns.

On the same day, the Statistics Bureau reported that Japan’s core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.0% year-on-year in November 2025, marking the 44th consecutive month above the BOJ’s 2% inflation target. Persistently elevated inflation has compelled the central bank to normalize its monetary stance to prevent further entrenchment of price pressures and maintain financial market stability.

Looking back over the past two years, Japan’s monetary policy has undergone significant adjustments. In March 2024, the BOJ ended its negative interest rate policy, raising the benchmark rate from -0.1% to 0%, representing a key turning point since the era of negative rates. In July 2024, the BOJ unexpectedly raised the rate to 0.25%, triggering large-scale unwinding of global carry trades and causing short-term volatility in international financial markets. Investors began to reassess the yen’s role as a safe-haven and investment asset. In January 2025, the BOJ increased the rate again to 0.5%, reaching a 17-year high, reflecting the central bank’s concern over both economic recovery and persistent inflationary pressures.

The December 2025 rate hike to 0.75% sets a nearly 30-year high and was accompanied by signals from the BOJ that further rate increases could follow. Market analysts suggest that continued rate hikes may strengthen the yen, potentially affecting Japan’s export competitiveness, particularly in key sectors such as automobiles, electronics, and machinery. At the same time, higher interest rates could help curb an overheating real estate market, limit investment bubbles, and improve bank profitability. For households and businesses, borrowing costs will rise while savings returns improve, potentially prompting short-term adjustments in consumption and investment behavior.

Overall, the BOJ’s multiple rate hikes since 2024 reflect the persistent inflationary pressures and uneven nature of Japan’s economic recovery. In the context of global economic uncertainty and the potential appreciation of the yen, the central bank’s future monetary policy will need to carefully balance inflation containment with economic growth support. Investors and market observers will closely watch how these policy moves may influence the yen’s exchange rate, capital markets, and the broader economy.