烏俄戰爭已經進入第三年，但兩邊的戰況仍然處於僵持狀態。這場衝突的主要原因之一是俄羅斯當局對於本國士兵生命的漠視，他們持續徵兵並將士兵送往前線，導致已有約40萬人傷亡或喪失戰鬥力。儘管如此，對於俄羅斯高層而言，重返歷史領土以穩固權力地位的意義高於一切。

烏克蘭一開始襲擊俄羅斯軍隊的彈藥庫、補給站、基礎設施、交通要道和發電設備，然而，這些行動的影響相當有限，因為俄羅斯是世界上最大的國家，其整體戰線過於廣大。近期，烏克蘭開始調整策略，將攻擊目標鎖定在俄羅斯的煉油廠和管線上。這種作法直接打擊俄羅斯的經濟和民生。在歐美國家的制裁下，俄羅斯只能透過出口原油給中國或是印度來獲取大量美元和歐元，才能持續購買軍事裝備和維持前線戰力。

俄羅斯產業過度依賴於原油生產，因此，當該產業受到重創時，對目前的戰爭局勢產生直接影響。未來可能會出現前線供應和國內民生用品嚴重短缺的情況。根據媒體報導，2024年2月2日，伏爾加格勒最大的盧克煉油廠再次遭到無人機襲擊，這座煉油廠每年的產能達到1480萬噸。從1月18日開始，聖彼得堡附近的一個戰略儲存油庫首次遭到無人機攻擊。截至目前，已有六個煉油廠和兩個油輪碼頭遭到襲擊。

可以預見，未來數十個煉油廠可能成為烏克蘭攻擊的目標，而俄羅斯很難防範這些攻擊。這些工廠一旦受到攻擊，將會停止生產，並對附近居民的環境及安全造成影響。而修復這些工廠的成本高昂且困難。截至目前，俄羅斯一月份的石油出口已銳減近三分之一，其中汽油下降37%，柴油下降23%。而2月份的數據可能會更為惡化，這將對俄羅斯的經濟和戰爭武器製造產生巨大挑戰。

The war between Ukraine and Russia has entered its third year, yet both sides remain deadlocked. One of the primary reasons for this conflict is the Russian authorities' disregard for the lives of their own soldiers, as they continue to conscript troops and send them to the front lines, resulting in approximately 400,000 casualties or incapacitated soldiers. Nevertheless, for the Russian leadership, reclaiming historical territories to solidify their power holds greater significance than anything else.

Initially, Ukraine targeted Russian military ammunition depots, supply stations, infrastructure, transportation routes, and power facilities. However, the impact of these actions was limited due to Russia's vast territorial expanse as the largest country in the world. Recently, Ukraine has shifted its strategy to focus on attacking Russia's oil refineries and pipelines, directly striking at Russia's economy and civilian population. Under sanctions from Western countries, Russia is forced to export oil to countries like China or India to acquire significant amounts of US dollars and Euros for purchasing military equipment and maintaining frontline forces.

Russia's economy heavily relies on oil production, so when this industry is severely affected, it directly impacts the current war situation. There may be severe shortages of frontline supplies and domestic necessities in the future. According to media reports, on February 2, 2024, Volgograd's largest Lukoil refinery was once again attacked by drones, with an annual production capacity of 14.8 million tons. Since January 18, a strategic oil storage facility near St. Petersburg has been targeted by drones. So far, six refineries and two oil tanker docks have been attacked.

It is foreseeable that dozens of refineries may become targets for Ukrainian attacks in the future, and Russia will struggle to defend against them. Once these facilities are attacked, production will halt, affecting nearby residents' environment and safety. Repairing these facilities will be costly and challenging. As of now, Russia's oil exports in January have dropped by nearly a third, with gasoline down by 37% and diesel down by 23%. The figures for February may worsen, posing significant challenges to Russia's economy and its ability to manufacture war weapons.

照片:DALLE3