未來十年內，中國二三線城市的房價預計至少會下跌一半。目前，房地產市場正面臨嚴重的拋售情況，上海的平均價格已經下跌30%以上。如果沒有干預，可能會出現嚴重崩盤情況。房價急劇下跌將導致銀行產生大量不良資產。

儘管如此，許多人仍然希望房價能夠穩定並回升。專家認為，未來中國北方小縣城的房價可能會下跌超過九成以上。價格取決於供需關係，即使很多地區的價格已經跌破建造成本，仍有許多開發商和屋主持續拋售房產。隨著一線城市的年輕人開始往外留學或就業，以及老年人決定全家一起出國移民，房產拋售潮將大幅增加。

在一些地區，如鶴岡，房價已降至5萬人民幣，當地的空房率非常高。中國大陸目前有超過120萬個無人村，每間房子都無人居住。最近，重慶更是有超過300萬人口外流。如果無法解決低出生率和人口外流問題，中國房地產市場在未來十年將面臨嚴峻挑戰。

In the next decade, property prices in China's second and third-tier cities are expected to drop by at least half. Currently, the real estate market is facing severe selling pressure, with average prices in Shanghai already down by over 30%. Without intervention, there may be a serious risk of collapse, leading to a significant increase in non-performing assets for banks.

Despite this, many still hope for stability and a rebound in property prices. Experts believe that prices in small northern Chinese county towns could drop by over 90% in the future. Price fluctuations depend on supply and demand dynamics, and even in areas where prices have fallen below construction costs, many developers and homeowners continue to sell properties.

As young people from first-tier cities begin to study or work abroad and elderly people decide to emigrate with their families, there will be a significant increase in property sales. In some areas like Hegang, prices have dropped to as low as 50,000 RMB, with a very high vacancy rate. Mainland China currently has over 1.2 million ghost towns, with every house unoccupied. Recently, Chongqing has seen an outflow of over 3 million people. If the issues of low birth rates and population outflow cannot be resolved, China's real estate market will face serious challenges in the next decade.

照片:DALLE3