2026年，加拿大餐飲業正面臨前所未有的壓力與變局。根據達爾豪斯大學（Dalhousie University）農業食品分析實驗室的最新預測，2026年加拿大餐飲業將出現約4,000家餐廳的「淨減少」現象，也就是倒閉的餐廳數量將超過新開業餐廳，這一數字再度引發業界對整體產業結構與未來方向的擔憂與討論。

若將2026年的淨減少數量與2025年的倒閉潮累計，兩年內消失的餐廳總數將接近1.1萬家。這個「11,000家」的數字並非單一年份的短期波動，而是反映出整個產業在成本上升、消費疲弱與營運模式轉變下的結構性調整。報告指出，2025年加拿大餐飲業已經歷約7,000家的倒閉浪潮；當這股壓力延續到2026年，並再度出現約4,000家的淨減少時，整體衝擊便更加顯著。

值得注意的是，這波倒閉潮並未只集中在中小型餐廳，即便是被視為品質保證、擁有品牌聲望的名店也難以倖免。以多倫多為例，2026年1月已有數家曾獲得米其林推薦或星級的餐廳宣布停業，這也顯示即使是高端市場，仍無法完全抵擋成本與消費需求變化的雙重壓力。其中包括：以米其林推薦越南料理著稱的 Cà Phê Rang，由於租約到期與成本壓力，於2026年1月24日宣布結業；此外，曾獲米其林必比登推薦的La Bartola也已於2025年3月結業；曾由米其林星級主廚主理的St. Thomas亦於2025年初停止營業；而Mandarin（Yonge/Eglinton分店）也在2026年1月18日宣布結束營運。這些案例凸顯出，即便餐廳本身具備市場號召力與高知名度，也仍可能因租金、勞動力成本與消費結構改變而面臨營運困境。

造成餐飲業倒閉潮的原因並非單一因素，而是多重壓力疊加。首先，經營成本在近年持續飆升，勞動力成本、食材價格上漲以及租金壓力共同侵蝕餐廳的利潤空間。其次，消費者行為也出現明顯變化，受經濟壓力影響，許多消費者在外用餐時會刻意削減高利潤產品的消費，例如酒精飲品、甜點、開胃菜等，導致餐廳整體毛利率下降。此外，雖然整體通膨率可能接近目標水平，但服務類通膨仍然相對頑固，而2025年底的稅收政策調整也對餐飲價格造成短期波動，進一步加劇了餐廳在定價與客流之間的兩難。

在這樣的背景下，「取消小費」的議題再度成為業界與消費者熱烈討論的焦點。支持者認為，目前加拿大餐飲業普遍採用較高的小費比例（通常從18%起跳），這不僅讓消費者在心理與經濟上感到負擔，也使得外出用餐的成本不易提前掌握。若改為取消小費，並以提高基本薪資的方式讓員工獲得穩定收入，餐廳價格將變得更透明，消費者也更容易接受，進而可能吸引客流回流，緩解整體市場萎縮的壓力。

然而，反對者或部分經營者則擔心，餐飲業目前的利潤率本就極低，如果取消小費並改由餐廳承擔更高的固定薪資成本，必然會推動菜單價格大幅上漲。在消費需求已經疲弱的情況下，價格上漲反而可能導致客流進一步下滑，甚至加速餐廳倒閉。這種「提高薪資 vs. 轉嫁成本」的矛盾，讓業界在尋找解方時陷入更大的困境，也讓政策與市場之間的平衡變得更加難以掌握。

總體而言，2026年被業界視為餐飲業的「深度重塑年」。儘管部分地區出現取消小費的試點餐廳，試圖以全包價、提高基本工資、重新定義服務價值的方式來穩住客源，但在通膨壓力與消費降級的雙重夾縫中，整體行業仍處於高度不確定與結構性調整階段。未來是否能在提高勞動報酬、維持消費者負擔能力與保持餐廳營運可持續性之間找到新的平衡點，將成為加拿大餐飲業能否走出困境的關鍵。

In 2026, Canada’s Restaurant Industry Faces Severe Challenges

In 2026, Canada’s restaurant industry is confronting unprecedented pressure and structural change. According to the latest forecast from the Agricultural and Food Analysis Laboratory at Dalhousie University, Canada is expected to experience a net reduction of approximately 4,000 restaurants in 2026—meaning closures will exceed new openings. This forecast has reignited industry concerns about the future structure and direction of the sector.

When combining the net reduction expected in 2026 with the closure wave of 2025, the total number of restaurants lost over two years could reach nearly 11,000. This “11,000” figure is not merely a short-term fluctuation but reflects a structural adjustment driven by rising costs, weakened consumer demand, and changing business models. The report notes that Canada already experienced about 7,000 restaurant closures in 2025, and with an additional net reduction of 4,000 in 2026, the cumulative impact becomes even more significant.

Notably, this wave of closures is not limited to small or mid-sized restaurants; even well-known, high-quality establishments have not been spared. In Toronto, several restaurants that previously received Michelin recognition or stars announced closures in January 2026, demonstrating that even the high-end market cannot fully withstand the dual pressures of costs and shifting consumer demand. These include:

• Cà Phê Rang (Michelin-recommended Vietnamese cuisine): Announced closure on January 24, 2026 due to lease expiration and cost pressures.
• La Bartola (Michelin Bib Gourmand): Closed in March 2025.
• St. Thomas (led by a Michelin-starred chef): Closed in early 2025.
• Mandarin (Yonge/Eglinton branch): Announced closure on January 18, 2026.

These examples show that even strong brands can face operational difficulties due to rent increases, labor costs, and changes in consumer behavior.

Major Causes of the Closure Wave

The restaurant closures result from multiple overlapping pressures rather than a single factor:

1. Rising Operating Costs
   Labor expenses, food inflation, and rent increases continue to erode profit margins.
2. Changes in Consumer Behavior
   Due to economic pressure, consumers are cutting back on high-margin items such as alcohol, desserts, and appetizers, which further reduces restaurant profitability.
3. Inflation and Policy Impact
   Although overall inflation may approach target levels, service inflation remains stubborn, and tax policy changes at the end of 2025 have caused short-term price volatility.

The Debate Over Eliminating Tipping

In this context, the proposal to eliminate tipping—shifting to an “all-inclusive price” model—has resurfaced as a hot topic:

• Supporters argue that tipping rates (often starting at 18%) increase the financial and psychological burden on diners. Eliminating tipping and raising base wages could improve price transparency and attract customers back to restaurants.
• Opponents and some operators worry that restaurant profit margins are already thin. If tipping is removed and restaurants must pay higher fixed wages, menu prices would rise significantly. In a weak consumer environment, this could accelerate closures.

Conclusion

Overall, 2026 is regarded as a year of “deep restructuring” for the restaurant industry. Although some regions have experimented with tipping-free models, the industry remains caught between inflationary pressure and consumer downscaling. Whether the sector can find a new balance between fair labor compensation, consumer affordability, and sustainable operations will determine whether Canada’s restaurant industry can emerge from this crisis.