截至2026年初，亞伯塔省的政治氣氛顯得格外敏感與複雜，多項民意調查顯示，大約有三成的居民支持獨立或脫離加拿大。這一現象並非偶然，而是長期累積的經濟、政治與心理因素共同作用的結果，反映出亞伯塔人對自身利益保護的強烈意識。

經濟因素是亞伯塔獨立傾向的重要推手。亞伯塔省擁有豐富的石油與天然氣資源，長期以來一直是加拿大經濟的核心動力。然而，聯邦政府實施的「均衡支付系統」使亞伯塔必須將部分稅收轉移至其他較貧窮的省份，如魁北克和大西洋沿岸省份。許多亞伯塔居民認為，當省內經濟面臨挑戰時，他們卻無法獲得與貢獻相對等的支持，這種財政上的不平衡感成為不滿情緒的重要來源。

能源政策與聯邦干預也是矛盾焦點。自由黨政府推行的環保政策，包括碳稅、油氣輸送管建設受阻以及油氣產業的溫室氣體排放上限，被許多亞伯塔人視為對本省經濟支柱產業的直接打擊。例如，聯邦通過的 Bill C-69 被批評為“反油管法”，限制亞伯塔原油出口至國際市場的能力，進一步加深省內的焦慮感與不滿情緒。

政治代表性不足與所謂的「西部疏離感」也是核心議題。亞伯塔人口相對較少，而加拿大聯邦政策往往受東部安大略省與魁北克省選民影響。亞伯塔居民長期感到，其保守主義價值觀與聯邦自由派政策存在根本衝突，無法在聯邦議會中獲得實質影響力。這種政治邊緣感進一步推動獨立或更大自治權的呼聲。

此外，地緣政治因素也在一定程度上催化獨立討論。部分支持者與美國前總統特朗普時期的官員有接觸，探討建立更緊密的經濟聯繫，甚至幻想亞伯塔加入美國成為第 51 州。這種觀點認為，相比受制於渥太華，直接與美國締結貿易協議可能在經濟上更具優勢。

心理與象徵意義同樣不可忽視。雖然有約三成居民表示支持獨立，但民調顯示，其中約一半的人並未真正準備承擔法律、財政與外交上的風險，而是將表達獨立傾向作為向聯邦政府施壓的策略，以期爭取更多自治權或政策讓步。這種象徵性的支持，使得獨立話題在亞伯塔省既具威脅性，也帶有一定的政治遊戲性。

綜合來看，亞伯塔的獨立情緒是多層因素交織的產物，既有現實的經濟利益考量，也包含文化與心理上的歷史積怨。在未來幾年，這一議題可能隨著能源市場波動、聯邦政策變化以及國際局勢演進而持續升溫，成為加拿大國內政治格局中的重要變數。

As of early 2026, the political climate in Alberta has become notably tense and complex. Multiple opinion polls indicate that roughly 30% of residents support independence or secession from Canada. This phenomenon is not coincidental; it is the result of long-standing economic, political, and psychological factors, reflecting a strong sense of self-interest and regional identity among Albertans.

Economic factors play a major role in driving Alberta’s independence sentiment. The province is rich in oil and natural gas resources and has long been a key engine of Canada’s economy. However, under the federal “Equalization Payments” system, Alberta must transfer part of its tax revenues to poorer provinces, such as Quebec and the Atlantic provinces. Many residents feel that when the provincial economy faces challenges, they do not receive support commensurate with their contribution, and this perceived fiscal imbalance has become a significant source of discontent.

Energy policy and federal intervention are also major points of tension. Environmental policies implemented by the federal Liberal government—including carbon taxes, restrictions on pipeline construction, and greenhouse gas emission limits for the oil and gas industry—are widely perceived in Alberta as direct blows to the province’s key economic sectors. For example, Bill C-69, criticized locally as the “anti-pipeline law,” restricts Alberta’s ability to export crude oil to international markets, exacerbating anxiety and dissatisfaction within the province.

Political representation and a sense of “Western alienation” further fuel these sentiments. Alberta has a relatively small population, while federal policies are often shaped by voters in Ontario and Quebec. Residents frequently feel that their conservative values clash with federal Liberal policies and that they lack meaningful influence in Parliament. This sense of political marginalization has contributed to calls for greater autonomy or even independence.

Geopolitical factors have also amplified independence discussions. Some supporters have engaged with officials from the Trump administration, exploring closer economic ties and even entertaining the idea of Alberta becoming the 51st state of the United States. Proponents argue that, compared to being constrained by Ottawa, direct trade agreements with the U.S. could provide greater economic benefits.

Psychological and symbolic aspects cannot be overlooked. While around 30% of residents express support for independence, polls indicate that about half of them are not actually prepared to assume the legal, financial, and diplomatic risks of secession. Instead, they use expressions of independence as a strategy to pressure the federal government for greater autonomy or policy concessions. This symbolic support makes the independence debate both a credible political threat and a form of political signaling.

Overall, Alberta’s independence sentiment is a complex product of intertwined factors, combining tangible economic concerns with historical, cultural, and psychological grievances. In the coming years, this issue is likely to remain volatile, influenced by energy market fluctuations, federal policy changes, and international developments, making it a significant variable in Canada’s domestic political landscape.