近期投資銀行TD Cowen發布的一份研究報告，對Oracle（甲骨文）近年來大舉押注AI基礎建設的擴張策略發出相當罕見且嚴厲的警告，迅速在資本市場引發震盪。這份報告不僅質疑Oracle的財務承受能力，也重新點燃市場對「AI 泡沫化」以及科技巨頭現金流風險的討論。

根據TD Cowen的估算，為了履行與OpenAI簽署、總金額高達3000億美元、為期五年的合作協議，Oracle必須在短時間內投入約1560億美元的資本支出，折合新台幣超過5000億元。這筆龐大資金主要用於全球資料中心的擴建與運算能力升級，包含部署約300萬顆高階GPU，規模在雲端產業中屬於極端激進的等級。

問題在於，Oracle的財務結構已開始顯現壓力。報告指出，Oracle在2025年底的自由現金流已轉為負值，代表公司本業產生的現金不足以支應投資與支出。未來數年，Oracle每年可能面臨高達250億美元的資金缺口，需要持續依賴外部融資。與此同時，其五年期信用違約交換（CDS）價格出現倍增，這通常被視為市場對企業違約風險顯著升溫的警訊。

更令市場不安的是融資環境的變化。報告引述市場消息指出，部分美國大型銀行已開始對Oracle的資料中心專案採取更保守態度，縮減甚至暫停放貸。原因在於Oracle的總負債已超過1300億美元，而其信用評等僅為BBB，屬於投資等級中的邊緣水準，與微軟等AI競爭對手的AAA等級存在巨大落差。在高利率環境下，這樣的負債結構顯得格外脆弱。

在最悲觀的情境推演中，TD Cowen甚至預警，Oracle可能不得不啟動史上最大規模的成本重整。報告推測，為了釋放約80億至100億美元的現金流，公司可能裁撤2萬至3萬名員工，並考慮出售近年併購而來的醫療科技子公司Cerner，以換取短期資金喘息空間。

這份報告之所以被視為一記警鐘，關鍵在於Oracle正進行的是一場高度「重資產化」的豪賭。AI基礎設施不同於傳統軟體業務，需要長期、巨額且前置性的資本投入，而Oracle試圖以舉債方式完成這種跳躍式擴張，本身就伴隨極高的財務風險。此外，其 AI訂單高度集中於OpenAI，形成明顯的單一客戶風險，一旦OpenAI的成長速度不如預期，或合約條件出現變動，Oracle投入的龐大算力可能面臨閒置與減值。

更現實的問題在於，訂單規模並不等於現金入帳。在AI業務尚未穩定轉化為可觀的自由現金流之前，利息支出、設備折舊與資料中心的營運成本，正持續侵蝕公司的財務基礎。這也解釋為何Oracle股價已自2025年高點明顯回落，反映市場情緒正從「追逐AI成長故事」，轉向更冷靜地審視企業的資產負債表與現金流健康度。

The Simplified Chinese–exclusive Mew card in the Pokémon Trading Card Game—most notably the SAR Mew ex—is extremely rare, primarily due to its very limited release, high acquisition threshold, and strict regional exclusivity. In Taiwan, the total allocation is only about 1,510 copies. These cards are distributed through official events via a monthly lottery system, with just 151 lucky players selected each month. This tightly controlled distribution method, combined with its exceptional collectible value, has led to demand far exceeding supply, making Mew a highly sought-after collector’s item.

At the core of its rarity is the extraordinarily low print run. The SAR Mew ex released for the Simplified Chinese PTCG is limited to just 1,510 copies, placing it firmly in the highest tier of collectible cards and resulting in extremely scarce circulation on the secondary market. The method of acquisition further amplifies this scarcity. Unlike standard packs that rely purely on random pulls, this Mew card requires players to meet specific official event conditions merely to qualify for the lottery, making it difficult to obtain and dependent on both commitment and luck.

In addition, the official monthly lottery releases only 151 copies at a time. This deliberately slow and segmented distribution intensifies the sense of rarity and keeps supply perpetually constrained. Coupled with Mew’s enduring popularity as a Pokémon icon and the added appeal of being a Simplified Chinese–exclusive card, collectors and investors alike actively compete to acquire it, driving prices steadily upward.

This carefully designed level of rarity has turned the Simplified Chinese–exclusive Mew into a true “holy grail” within the Simplified Chinese PTCG ecosystem.