任天堂（Nintendo）股價於2026年2月4日在東京證券交易所出現劇烈震盪，最終收盤重挫近11%，創下約一年半以來最大單日跌幅。隨著股價大幅下挫，任天堂單日市值蒸發約1.44兆日圓，引發市場高度關注。這波跌勢並非突發意外，而是在公司公布最新財報後，市場長期累積的不安情緒一次性釋放的結果。

從投資人角度來看，這次崩跌主要源自兩個層面的利空因素：一是硬體成本快速失控，二是市場對未來成長動能的信心明顯動搖。首先在成本面，記憶體價格的暴漲成為壓垮股價的重要導火線。受人工智慧（AI）運算、雲端服務與資料中心大規模擴張影響，全球 DRAM 需求急遽攀升，市場預期本季DRAM價格漲幅可能高達90%至95%。對以遊戲主機為核心產品的任天堂而言，這並非短期波動，而是結構性壓力。

多家分析機構指出，進入2026年後，記憶體模組在主機整體成本中的占比，可能上升至21%至23%，遠高於過往世代水準。這意味著即便主機銷量持續成長，硬體本身的利潤空間仍會被大幅侵蝕。任天堂社長古川俊太郎在財報說明中也罕見坦言，若零組件高價態勢延續，將對公司整體獲利能力造成實質壓力，未來不排除透過調整主機售價，將部分成本轉嫁給消費者。這番表態被市場解讀為任天堂「成本優先、價格保守」經營模式正面臨嚴峻考驗。

另一方面，成長動能的不確定性同樣加劇投資人疑慮。新一代主機Switch 2自 2025年夏季上市以來，累積銷量已突破1,700萬台，表面成績亮眼，但資本市場關注的焦點早已不再只是硬體銷售數字，而是能否建立長期穩定的軟體與生態系收入。部分投資人認為，目前Switch 2尚未展現出足以長期拉動買氣的「重量級第一方獨佔作品」，擔心初期銷售熱度無法轉化為持續性的軟體收益與高毛利循環。

這種擔憂也直接反映在財測表現上。任天堂此次選擇維持原有的年度獲利預測，約為3,500億日圓，明顯低於市場普遍預期的4,060億日圓。在分析師原本期待公司上修財測的情況下，這樣偏向保守的展望被視為信心不足的訊號，進而觸發大規模的獲利了結賣壓。當預期落空又缺乏新利多刺激時，股價快速下修也就成為市場的自然反應。

此外，宏觀環境的不確定性同樣為任天堂增添壓力。自2025年起，美國關稅政策的調整已影響到任天堂位於中國與越南的生產布局，加上全球供應鏈在地緣政治與成本結構上的變數持續升高，使投資人對未來製造成本與出貨穩定性抱持更審慎態度。在零組件價格高漲的背景下，任何外部衝擊都可能進一步放大風險。

綜合來看，任天堂此次股價重挫，並非單一事件或短期情緒反應，而是市場對「高成本時代來臨」與「Switch 2 生態系能否延續成功模式」的雙重焦慮集中爆發。未來股價能否回穩，關鍵將取決於記憶體價格走勢、第一方遊戲陣容的實際表現，以及任天堂是否能在不傷害品牌與用戶黏著度的前提下，成功平衡成本、定價與長期成長。

Nintendo’s share price experienced a sharp and dramatic swing on the Tokyo Stock Exchange on February 4, 2026, ultimately closing nearly 11% lower. This marked the company’s largest single-day decline in roughly 18 months, wiping out approximately 1.44 trillion yen in market capitalization in just one trading session. The sell-off followed the release of Nintendo’s latest financial results and reflected growing investor unease rather than a single unexpected headline.

The downturn was driven primarily by two major negative factors: mounting cost pressures and doubts about the company’s future growth momentum. On the cost side, the surge in memory prices has emerged as a serious threat to profitability. Fueled by explosive demand from artificial intelligence applications and data centers, DRAM prices are projected to rise by an astonishing 90% to 95% within the current quarter. Analysts estimate that by 2026, memory modules alone could account for roughly 21% to 23% of the total manufacturing cost of Nintendo’s consoles. Such a shift would significantly squeeze hardware margins, an area where Nintendo has traditionally relied on careful cost control rather than aggressive pricing. President Shuntaro Furukawa openly acknowledged this risk, warning that sustained high component costs would weigh heavily on earnings and that price increases for hardware could not be ruled out as a last resort to offset the pressure.

At the same time, concerns about growth prospects further amplified the negative sentiment. Although the next-generation Switch 2, launched in the summer of 2025, has reportedly sold more than 17 million units, investors remain unconvinced about its long-term momentum. The core worry is not hardware adoption itself, but the perceived lack of blockbuster first-party exclusives capable of continuously driving software sales and sustaining consumer enthusiasm over multiple years. Without a clear pipeline of must-have titles, the impressive early sales figures have not translated into confidence about recurring revenue and ecosystem strength.

These anxieties were compounded by Nintendo’s cautious financial outlook. The company chose to maintain its existing annual profit forecast at around 350 billion yen, well below the market consensus of approximately 406 billion yen. This conservative stance, combined with the absence of new positive catalysts in the earnings announcement, disappointed investors who had been expecting upward revisions. As a result, pent-up profit-taking pressure was unleashed, accelerating the decline in the stock price.

Beyond company-specific issues, broader external factors also weighed on sentiment. Since 2025, changes in U.S. tariff policies have affected production lines in China and Vietnam, adding uncertainty to Nintendo’s manufacturing costs and supply chain stability. In an environment already strained by volatile component prices and geopolitical risk, these uncertainties further eroded investor confidence.

Taken together, the sharp drop in Nintendo’s share price reflects not only short-term disappointment with earnings and guidance, but also deeper structural concerns about rising hardware costs, the sustainability of the Switch 2 ecosystem, and the company’s ability to navigate an increasingly complex global supply chain while preserving its traditionally strong profitability model.