為何不要投資烏克蘭?

2024-06-22

烏克蘭作為投資目的地,存在許多挑戰,以下是幾個主要原因:

行政效率差:烏克蘭的官僚體系往往效率低下,企業需要花費大量時間和精力處理各種行政手續和批准流程,這可能會拖延業務運作。

員工不好找:雖然烏克蘭擁有受過良好教育的人才,但特定技能的人才供應可能不足,尤其是在高科技和專業服務領域。而普通服務業員工也不好找,即使來上班,可能過沒幾日就忽然消失蹤影,即使缺錢工作態度也很懶散。

普遍不會說英文:儘管年輕一代逐漸增加英語能力,但整體來說,烏克蘭的英語普及率不高,這對於外國企業來說,溝通和管理可能會面臨困難。基輔與利沃夫的說英文人口比較高,儘管如此大部分的人還是說烏克蘭與或是俄文。

長期與俄羅斯打仗:持續的地緣政治緊張局勢和與俄羅斯的衝突增加投資的不確定性和風險,對企業的長期發展構成威脅。與俄羅斯的長期戰爭,導致電力及暖氣供應不穩定,外資紛紛撤資,只要戰爭一日不結束,資金外流的狀況只會更嚴重。

貪腐嚴重:腐敗在烏克蘭仍然是個大問題,企業可能需要面臨額外的成本和風險來應對腐敗行為,這會增加營運成本並降低投資吸引力。有一些人會定期跑到中國餐廳吃飯,然後不付錢就拍拍屁股走人,還會要脅要查稅。外國人通常是被索賄的主要對象,全面戰爭爆發前還發生過美國人在地鐵被攔檢,要求支付罰款或是對外國人開罰單但可以私下給錢了事,

匯率波動嚴重:烏克蘭貨幣匯率波動較大,這會影響企業的財務穩定性和盈利能力,特別是對於依賴進出口的企業。開戰後$1美元換當地貨幣$26.5UAH貶值到$1美元兌換$40UAH,當地企業損失慘重,外國物資變的相當昂貴。

基礎設施不足:烏克蘭的基礎設施,包括交通、電力和通信設施,相對落後,目前只有基輔與哈爾克夫有地鐵,全國並沒有高鐵,這會影響企業的日常運營和物流效率。鐵路與地鐵都相當老舊,都是從蘇聯時期所延續下來。

法律和法規環境不穩定:烏克蘭的法律和法規經常變動,缺乏穩定性和透明度,企業在遵守法律和法規時可能面臨困難。這邊的盜版商品相當猖獗,在市場或商店都是公開的祕密,在逛街的時候不要亂拍商品,否則會被商家痛罵,因為都不是正版的。

司法系統效率低下:烏克蘭的司法系統在執法和爭端解決方面效率低下,企業在面臨法律糾紛時可能需要耗費大量時間和資源。一般民間機構的行政效率也不高,在銀行開戶需要花一整個下午的時間。

市場規模有限:烏克蘭的內需市場規模相對較小,對於依賴大規模市場的企業來說,可能難以達到預期的銷售目標。人民的消費能力相當低,許多老人因為沒有領到足夠的年金來養老,下午都在外面擺攤賺錢。這邊有麥當勞跟KFC,受到當地民眾的喜愛,但卻沒有星巴克跟其他美國大型連鎖餐廳,因為高單價的商品很難在烏克蘭販售。

政治不穩定:烏克蘭的政治環境不穩定,政府更迭頻繁,政策連續性和一致性不足,這會增加企業的經營風險。

 

銀行業不穩定:烏克蘭的銀行業經常出現問題,包括銀行倒閉和信貸緊縮,這會影響企業的資金流動性和融資能力。目前最大的銀行是Private Bank,除通路最多也是少數可以讓外國人用護照開戶的金融機構。其他小銀行的定存為吸引資金,推出存款利率高達18.5%的誘因,但外國人則需要提供稅籍資料才可開戶。

高稅負:烏克蘭的稅收制度複雜且稅負較高,這會增加企業的經營成本和稅務合規風險。

工會力量強大:某些行業的工會力量較大,可能會對企業的勞動關係和成本控制造成挑戰。烏克蘭人民族性強悍,遇到不平等的待遇就會走上街頭抗議。

儘管如此烏克蘭有一些吸引投資的優勢例如工資廉價,但投資者需要充分了解並考慮這些挑戰,以便做出明智的投資決策。華人在烏克蘭主要開中國餐廳或是亞洲超市,這邊的亞洲調味料或泡麵價格都是亞洲的一倍以上。在敖達薩的華人比較多做進出口買賣,烏克蘭的小麥或其他貨品透過黑海運送到土耳其再轉運到亞洲,來自亞洲的商品也是經過黑海入港到烏克蘭。

Ukraine as an investment destination faces many challenges. Here are some key reasons:

Inefficient Administration: Ukraine's bureaucratic system is often inefficient, requiring businesses to spend considerable time and effort on various administrative procedures and approval processes, potentially delaying business operations.

Difficult to Find Employees: Although Ukraine has well-educated talent, there may be a shortage of skilled professionals, especially in high-tech and specialized service sectors. In the general service industry, employees can also be hard to find. Even if they come to work, they might disappear suddenly after a few days, and despite financial need, their work attitude can be very lazy.

Limited English Proficiency: While the younger generation is increasingly proficient in English, overall, the English proficiency rate in Ukraine is low, posing communication and management difficulties for foreign businesses. Kyiv and Lviv have relatively higher English-speaking populations, but the majority still speak Ukrainian or Russian.

Ongoing Conflict with Russia: The ongoing geopolitical tensions and conflict with Russia add uncertainty and risk to investments, threatening the long-term development of businesses. The prolonged war with Russia leads to unstable power and heating supplies, causing foreign investors to withdraw. As long as the war continues, capital outflows will only worsen.

Serious Corruption: Corruption remains a significant issue in Ukraine, requiring businesses to face additional costs and risks to deal with corrupt practices, thereby increasing operational costs and reducing investment attractiveness. Some individuals regularly dine at Chinese restaurants without paying and leave, even threatening tax inspections. Foreigners are usually prime targets for bribery, with incidents before the full-scale war where Americans were stopped in the subway, asked to pay fines, or issued tickets that could be settled privately.

Severe Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The Ukrainian currency exchange rate is highly volatile, affecting the financial stability and profitability of businesses, especially those reliant on import and export. After the war began, the exchange rate of $1 USD from 26.5 UAH devalued to 40 UAH, causing significant losses for local businesses and making foreign goods very expensive.

 

Insufficient Infrastructure: Ukraine's infrastructure, including transportation, power, and communication facilities, is relatively underdeveloped. Currently, only Kyiv and Kharkiv have subways, and there are no high-speed railways nationwide, affecting daily business operations and logistics efficiency. Railways and subways are quite old, continuing from the Soviet era.

Unstable Legal and Regulatory Environment: Ukraine's laws and regulations frequently change, lacking stability and transparency, making compliance difficult for businesses. Piracy is rampant here, with counterfeit goods openly sold in markets or stores. When shopping, avoid photographing the goods, or you'll be scolded by vendors since they aren't genuine products.

Inefficient Judicial System: Ukraine's judicial system is inefficient in law enforcement and dispute resolution, causing businesses to spend significant time and resources on legal disputes. Administrative efficiency in general institutions is also low, such as spending an entire afternoon to open a bank account.

Limited Market Size: Ukraine's domestic market is relatively small, making it challenging for businesses reliant on large-scale markets to meet expected sales targets. Consumer purchasing power is quite low, with many elderly people setting up stalls in the afternoon to earn money because their pensions are insufficient for retirement. While McDonald's and KFC are popular here, there are no Starbucks or other large American chain restaurants because high-priced items are difficult to sell in Ukraine.

Political Instability: Ukraine's political environment is unstable, with frequent government changes leading to inconsistent policies, increasing business operation risks.

Unstable Banking Sector: Ukraine's banking sector often faces problems, including bank failures and credit crunches, affecting business liquidity and financing ability. The largest bank is PrivatBank, which has the most branches and is one of the few that allows foreigners to open accounts with a passport. Other small banks attract funds by offering deposit interest rates as high as 18.5%, but foreigners need to provide tax documents to open an account.

High Tax Burden: Ukraine's tax system is complex with a high tax burden, increasing operational costs and tax compliance risks for businesses.

Strong Union Power: In certain industries, strong union power can challenge labor relations and cost control for businesses. Ukrainians are fiercely nationalistic, and will protest against unfair treatment.

Despite these challenges, Ukraine has some advantages for attracting investment, such as low labor costs. However, investors need to fully understand and consider these challenges to make wise investment decisions. Chinese people in Ukraine mainly open Chinese restaurants or Asian supermarkets, where Asian seasonings or instant noodles are more than twice the price in Asia. In Odessa, many Chinese are involved in import-export trade, with Ukrainian wheat or other goods transported through the Black Sea to Turkey and then to Asia. Goods from Asia also enter Ukraine via Black Sea ports.

 

照片:DALLE3