2025年的中國房地產市場持續跳水,溫州跌幅最高

2025-08-02

2025年,中國房地產市場持續處於深度調整之中,眾多城市房價相較歷史高點出現大幅下跌的情況。根據最新數據,全國已有11個城市房價跌幅超過50%,25個城市跌幅超過40%,更有50個城市下跌超過30%。其中,浙江溫州成為跌幅最大的城市,成為全國房價調整的「跌幅冠軍」,跌幅之深、之久,引發廣泛關注。

溫州曾是中國民營經濟的代表,也是最早興起的「炒房熱點」之一。上世紀末至2000年代初期,「溫州炒房團」活躍於全國各大城市,其強大的資金實力與投資意志,一度推高包括上海、海南、重慶等地的房價,甚至回流本地,在溫州本地房價泡沫化發展。特別是2010年前後,溫州核心區如鹿城、樂清、龍灣等地的樓盤價格飆升至歷史高位,部分高端物業單價突破每平方米數十萬元。

然而,隨著中國樓市調控不斷收緊,加上經濟轉型壓力與人口結構改變,溫州房市自高位回落後始終未能恢復元氣。數據顯示,截至2025年中,溫州市新房均價從年初的每平方米約1.74萬人民幣元跌至1.54萬元,僅半年間跌幅已達15%。若與過往高點相比,部分地區累積跌幅甚至超過五成。曾經熙攘熱鬧的高端住宅項目,如今變成去化困難的「庫存負擔」,大量二手房無人問津。

這場大規模房價修正不僅僅是數字上的滑落,更對中產階級造成深遠衝擊。在中國,大部分中產家庭的資產主要集中於房產,並且通常不只持有一套住房。房價暴跌意味著家庭總資產嚴重縮水,特別是那些在房價高點期間購房的人,所背負的房貸壓力已遠超房產市值,甚至出現「資不抵債」的情況。這種現實不僅打擊財富信心,也直接影響消費意願。

目前,中國內地中產階層普遍呈現出「不敢消費」的心理傾向。過去可透過房產升值帶來的財富感與安全感,如今因房價暴跌而被打破,進一步加劇經濟下行壓力。家電、家具、汽車等耐用消費品銷量持續疲弱,與房地產高度綁定的內需經濟鏈亦陷入低迷,形成負面循環。

總體而言,溫州房價的深跌是中國房市多年泡沫與結構失衡的縮影。這不僅是單一城市的經濟問題,更是一場全國範圍內的資產重估與信心重建。房價下跌本應有助於剷除泡沫、回歸理性,但在長期缺乏有效社會保障與財富多元化配置的結構下,對於以「房產為主」的中國中產階級而言,這場房價暴跌更像是一種現實的「資產洗牌」,其社會影響將遠超單純的經濟統計。

In 2025, China’s real estate market remains in a prolonged state of deep correction, with housing prices in many cities experiencing sharp declines from their historical peaks. According to the latest data, home prices in 11 cities have dropped by more than 50%, in 25 cities by over 40%, and in 50 cities by over 30%. Among them, Wenzhou in Zhejiang Province stands out as the city with the largest price drop nationwide, earning the title of “decline champion” in this round of market adjustment. The depth and duration of Wenzhou’s downturn have drawn widespread attention.

Wenzhou was once a symbol of China’s private economy and one of the earliest hotbeds of speculative real estate activity. From the late 1990s to the early 2000s, the so-called “Wenzhou property speculators” became active across major cities in China. Backed by strong financial resources and aggressive investment attitudes, they played a significant role in driving up housing prices in cities like Shanghai, Hainan, and Chongqing. Eventually, these speculative forces also fueled a bubble in their home market of Wenzhou. Around 2010, housing prices in Wenzhou’s core districts—such as Lucheng, Yueqing, and Longwan—soared to historic highs, with some luxury properties exceeding tens of thousands of yuan per square meter.

 

However, as China’s property regulations tightened and the broader economy underwent structural transformation—compounded by demographic shifts—Wenzhou’s housing market never fully recovered from its peak. By mid-2025, the average price of new homes in Wenzhou had fallen from approximately 17,400 yuan per square meter at the beginning of the year to 15,400 yuan, marking a 15% drop in just six months. In some areas, cumulative declines have surpassed 50% compared to past highs. Formerly bustling high-end developments have now become burdensome inventory, and the second-hand housing market is seeing widespread stagnation.

This large-scale correction in home prices is not just a numerical slide—it is delivering a deep and lasting blow to China’s middle class. In China, most middle-class families have the majority of their wealth tied up in real estate, often owning more than one property. Plummeting property values mean a significant erosion of household assets. For those who purchased homes at peak prices, the burden of mortgage repayments now exceeds the actual market value of their homes, resulting in situations of negative equity. This reality has not only undermined confidence in personal wealth but also directly dampened consumer willingness to spend.

At present, a widespread “fear of consumption” is evident among the middle class across mainland China. The sense of wealth and security once generated by rising property values has been shattered by the steep declines, further amplifying downward pressure on the economy. Sales of durable goods—such as home appliances, furniture, and automobiles—remain sluggish. The broader domestic demand chain, which is closely tied to the real estate sector, is also languishing, creating a vicious cycle of weakening confidence and economic stagnation.

Overall, Wenzhou’s dramatic housing price decline serves as a microcosm of China’s broader property bubble and structural imbalances. This is not merely a local economic issue—it is part of a nationwide asset revaluation and crisis of confidence. While falling housing prices in theory should help deflate the bubble and restore market rationality, the lack of robust social safety nets and diversified wealth channels in China has turned this adjustment into a painful “asset reshuffling” for the middle class, whose fortunes are overwhelmingly tied to property. The social implications of this shift are likely to far exceed what any economic statistic can capture.