廣東作為中國第一經濟大省，卻意外地成為高校「招生荒」最明顯的地區。2025 年高校招生季，廣東高校連續三次下調本科錄取分數線，總共下調約36分。即便如此，全省仍有超過1萬個名額缺額。湛江科技學院更是極端案例：原計劃招生7,544人，首輪僅錄取1,189人，錄取率僅16%。儘管校方實施三輪補錄，到八月份仍不足滿額，還缺2,148人，缺額率仍高達30%以上。

在鄰近的廣西地區，民辦高校的招生危機同樣嚴重。部分院校在第四輪徵集志願中「放寬錄取限制」，不再受文化最低錄取控制線的束縛，招⋯⋯結果是園藝、工商管理與護理等冷門專業缺額率超過九成，部分班級甚至全班不到十人。招生困境並非個別現象，而是預警更多民辦高校因生源不足面臨倒閉。自2021 年起，包括南京應天職業技術學院與同濟大學浙江學院在內的25所民辦高校被官方強制關停。如今，仍有大批院校因招生困難而瀕臨倒閉邊緣，特別是地處偏遠、知名度低、缺乏特色的院校，已無法透過市場競爭維系生存空間。

資料顯示，這些問題的族群來源於制度調整（如聯報志願、多專業機制）與市場需求萎縮。招生機制與供需落差導致招生結構失衡，使部分院校的生源銳減。學費飛漲已成為全民大學教育的現實壓力。以湛江科技學院為例，年學費約人民幣3萬元，加上四年旅宿與生活費，總支出估計超過20萬元。全國其他民辦院校普遍年學費 2～3萬元，部分熱門專業已突破5萬元／年。

公辦高校也不甘落後，紛紛跟進調漲學費。上海某職校藝術類本科年增8,000元，雲南某大學文史類每年增800元，而新疆大學與華東理工部分專業學費上漲幅度達20%～50%。若每年平均增幅約10%，短短五年內恐將完全告別「五千元時代」，四年二十萬的上大學夢正在逐漸被現實拆解。高學費嚴重影響家庭負擔，也進一步降低劣勢學校對學生的吸引力，加速招生斷層。

教育撥款縮減與生源暴增形成立即矛盾。教育部公開數據顯示，2025年高等教育撥款為1,143億元，較2024年減少約4.7%。然而這並不是平均減少，有些地方普通高校撥款縮水超過20%。同時，2025年高校在校生人數接近新高，約為 1999年的八倍。撥款縮減、生源增加、財政治理壓力三者交織，使得各地市層級及非重點公辦高校的人均生源保障資源大幅下降。這導致不少公辦院校不得不裁員、削減教學補助與經費，甚至縮緊設備維護費用。在缺乏撥款和招生成果雙重壓力下，許多普通公辦院校岌岌可危。

面對嚴峻局面，政府已推出包括資金補貼、招生政策協調與專項扶持等措施。然而，對於缺乏特色與競爭力的民辦學校而言，依靠一時補貼不足以逆轉招生頹勢。公辦學校則需在財務運營與教育質量之間找到平衡，一些學校嘗試引入第三方投資、產學合作等新模式，以補充收入來源。但在教育資源高度集中於國防科大、哈工大等少數重點科研類高校的趨勢下，一般院校難以取得更有效支持。若制度不改革、差異化辦學策略不落地，招生、學費、撥款三角壓力將繼續主宰高校存亡。

這波招生荒與學費攀升，不只是單次衝擊，更是中國高等教育面臨制度性、結構性轉型壓力的集中顯現。招生政策、辦學定位與財源配置之間的失衡，正在形成對普通高校、尤其是民辦高校的存續威脅。未來是否能透過改革招生機制、財政撥款再分配與辦學定位差異化，進而建立更具彈性與公平的高教體系，仍需各方共同努力與長期跟進。否則，教育資源與人才鏈失衡可能導致地區專業空洞、整體教育體系內在裂縫加深，教育公平也將面臨重大挑戰。

Guangdong, China’s Leading Economic Province, Unexpectedly Hit Hardest by University Enrollment Crisis

As China’s top economic powerhouse, Guangdong has surprisingly become the most prominent region facing a university enrollment crisis. During the 2025 college admissions season, universities in Guangdong lowered the minimum undergraduate admission scores three times in a row, with a total reduction of about 36 points. Despite these measures, the province still had over 10,000 unfilled slots. The most extreme case is Zhanjiang University of Science and Technology, which initially planned to enroll 7,544 students but only admitted 1,189 in the first round, yielding an acceptance rate of just 16%. Even after three rounds of supplementary admissions, the school still had 2,148 vacancies by August, with a shortfall rate exceeding 30%.

A similar crisis is unfolding in neighboring Guangxi, where private colleges are also experiencing severe recruitment challenges. Some institutions relaxed admission standards during the fourth round of voluntary applications, removing the requirement for minimum cultural exam scores. As a result, niche majors like horticulture, business management, and nursing saw vacancy rates exceeding 90%, with some classes enrolling fewer than ten students.

This admissions dilemma is not an isolated incident but a warning sign that more private universities may face closure due to a shrinking applicant pool. Since 2021, 25 private institutions — including Nanjing Yingtian Vocational and Technical College and Tongji University’s Zhejiang College — have been forcibly shut down by authorities. Many others now teeter on the edge of collapse, especially those in remote areas, lacking reputation, or without distinctive programs, which can no longer survive in a competitive market environment.

Structural Causes: System Reforms and Market Shrinkage

Data indicates that the root causes of these issues stem from systemic adjustments — such as joint application systems and multi-major selection mechanisms — along with a contraction in market demand. Misalignment between admission mechanisms and student demand has caused imbalances, drastically reducing the applicant pool for certain institutions.

Soaring Tuition: A Growing Burden

Skyrocketing tuition has become a harsh reality for families pursuing higher education. At Zhanjiang University of Science and Technology, annual tuition is around 30,000 RMB. Including four years of housing and living expenses, the total cost exceeds 200,000 RMB. Nationwide, most private universities charge between 20,000 and 30,000 RMB per year, while some popular majors now exceed 50,000 RMB annually.

Public universities are also raising their tuition. A vocational college in Shanghai raised tuition for arts majors by 8,000 RMB annually; a university in Yunnan added 800 RMB per year for liberal arts and history majors. Some majors at Xinjiang University and East China University of Science and Technology have seen tuition hikes of 20% to 50%. If this average 10% annual increase continues, the era of 5,000 RMB per year tuition will soon be a thing of the past. The dream of completing a four-year degree for under 200,000 RMB is becoming increasingly out of reach. High tuition burdens not only strain families but also diminish the appeal of lower-tier schools, accelerating the enrollment decline.

Funding Cuts and Student Surges: A Policy Dilemma

Funding cuts are colliding with record-high student numbers. According to public data from the Ministry of Education, the higher education budget for 2025 stands at 114.3 billion RMB — a 4.7% decrease from 2024. This reduction is unevenly distributed, with some local public colleges seeing their funding cut by more than 20%. Meanwhile, the number of students enrolled in higher education is nearing an all-time high — about eight times that of 1999.

This combination of funding cuts, student population growth, and fiscal pressure has sharply reduced the per-student resources available to local governments and non-elite public universities. Many such institutions are now forced to lay off staff, reduce teaching subsidies and operational budgets, and even cut back on equipment maintenance. Lacking both adequate funding and enrollment results, numerous ordinary public universities are on shaky ground.

Policy Responses and the Road Ahead

To address the crisis, the government has introduced measures such as financial subsidies, coordinated admissions policies, and targeted support programs. However, for private schools lacking distinctive features or competitive advantages, one-time subsidies are unlikely to reverse the downward trend. Public universities must also strike a balance between financial viability and educational quality. Some institutions are experimenting with new revenue models like third-party investment and industry-academia partnerships.

Yet as educational resources remain highly concentrated in a few top-tier research universities — such as the National University of Defense Technology and Harbin Institute of Technology — ordinary colleges struggle to obtain effective support. Without institutional reforms and the implementation of differentiated development strategies, the triple pressures of enrollment, tuition, and funding will continue to determine the survival of many higher education institutions.

This wave of enrollment shortfalls and rising tuition is not just a temporary shock. It reflects a deeper, systemic and structural transformation facing China’s higher education sector. The imbalance between admissions policies, institutional positioning, and funding distribution now poses an existential threat to ordinary universities, particularly private ones.

Whether China can build a more resilient and equitable higher education system through reforms in admissions, reallocation of government funding, and diversified institutional development remains an open question. Without such efforts, imbalances in educational resources and talent pipelines may lead to regional skills gaps and deepen systemic cracks within the broader educational landscape — putting the goal of educational equity at serious risk.