美國聯準會（Federal Reserve）主席鮑威爾（Jerome Powell）在最新的公開講話中，釋放出重大政策轉向信號，表示「未來可能停止縮表」，這番話立刻在全球金融市場掀起巨大波瀾。然而，美股對此反應冷淡，三大指數集體收跌，科技巨頭更是領跌全場，其中英偉達（NVIDIA）市值單日蒸發超過 2014億美元，成為市場劇烈震盪的焦點。

要理解這場「凌晨突發」的金融事件，必須先搞清楚什麼是「縮表」。簡單來說，縮表就是聯準會從市場上「收回資金」的過程。這通常發生在通脹高漲或經濟過熱時，央行通過出售資產、減少持有的債券與抵押貸款支持證券（MBS），從而抽走市場中的流動性。資金變少，貸款成本上升，企業融資更難，股市的活力自然減弱。這也是聯準會自2022年以來一直執行的緊縮政策重點。

而如今鮑威爾的講話意味著——這一輪「抽水」行動或許即將結束。他表示：「美聯儲可能會在未來幾個月停止縮表。」這句話相當於是在市場中釋放出「不再繼續收錢」的訊號，暗示資金環境將有望放鬆，市場壓力或將減輕。形象地說，就像原本的水龍頭一直開著往外放水，如今終於準備關小閥門，讓水池裡的水不再迅速流失。

至於為什麼會出現這樣的政策調整，鮑威爾提到了三個關鍵原因。
首先，美國勞動力市場正在降溫。近幾個月以來，就業增速放緩，企業招聘意願下降，這顯示經濟活動開始減速。如果聯準會繼續縮表，可能會讓經濟更快陷入疲軟。
其次，通貨膨脹壓力顯著減輕。美國的核心通膨已逐步回落，雖未達到聯準會設定的2%目標，但已遠離高通膨時期的峰值。這給了政策制定者更多空間去「放慢收緊腳步」。
第三，銀行體系的儲備金水平已接近合理區間。聯準會認為金融系統的流動性目前足以維持穩定，若再繼續縮表，反而可能造成資金市場緊張，增加金融風險。

因此，鮑威爾的核心訊息可以解讀為：「我們的收緊政策已經達到階段性目標，接下來要保持穩定。」

這番言論對全球市場而言是一個極為微妙但具有轉折意義的信號。若聯準會真的停止縮表，意味著美國的緊縮周期可能接近尾聲，國際資金流動結構也會隨之調整。美元若走弱，新興市場的壓力有望減輕。對中國市場而言，這通常被視為利好消息——因為國際資金可能重新流入風險資產，投資者的風險偏好提升，A股與港股的市場情緒或將受到提振。

然而，市場對鮑威爾的講話反應並不熱烈。美股三大指數在消息公布後迅速轉跌，道瓊斯工業指數與標普500皆下滑，納斯達克更是大幅走低。科技股成為重災區，英偉達市值單日蒸發逾2000億美元，蘋果、微軟、特斯拉等公司股價也同步回調。投資人普遍認為，聯準會雖釋放「停止縮表」信號，但並未明確宣布降息，因此市場的寬鬆預期仍不穩定。

鮑威爾特別強調，目前談「降息」仍為時過早。他只是表示「可能放慢緊縮步伐」，並非立刻「放水」。換句話說，美聯儲現在只是「鬆一口氣」，還沒準備「轉向刺激」。真正的關鍵在於接下來的會議——市場將密切關注本月是否會啟動降息，或年底是否正式開啟新一輪寬鬆周期。

整體而言，這次「凌晨突發」的政策暗示，是聯準會自緊縮周期以來的重大拐點之一。它象徵著美國經濟從高通膨時代逐步過渡到「穩增長與低通膨」的新階段，但同時也揭示了市場對未來方向的巨大不確定性。對全球投資者而言，這場「停止縮表」的討論，或許只是下一場貨幣政策變局的序幕。

In the early hours of October 15, global financial markets were shaken after U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at a potential halt to the Fed’s balance sheet reduction—a move that could signal the beginning of the end for the current monetary tightening cycle. However, Wall Street was not impressed. U.S. stocks fell sharply, with tech giants leading the decline. NVIDIA saw its market capitalization plunge by a staggering $201.4 billion in a single night, marking one of the steepest losses in its history.

To understand why this triggered such strong reactions, it’s important to first grasp what “stopping balance sheet reduction” means.
In simple terms, balance sheet reduction (quantitative tightening) means the Fed has been “withdrawing money” from the market—essentially draining liquidity by letting bonds mature without reinvestment or selling assets. This “pulling money out” makes credit more expensive, slows down economic activity, and suppresses asset prices such as stocks.

Powell’s latest remark that the Fed “may soon stop reducing its balance sheet” is a subtle yet powerful signal: the Fed may no longer keep draining liquidity. In other words, the monetary tightening that began in 2022 could be nearing its end. This is like a faucet that has been turned on full blast to drain water from a tank—Powell is now saying it might be time to turn down the flow and let some water remain.

Why stop now?

Powell cited three key reasons behind this potential policy shift:

1. The labor market is cooling. Job growth in the U.S. has slowed, and companies are hiring more cautiously. This suggests the economy is losing momentum.
2. Inflationary pressures are easing. Price growth, while still above the Fed’s 2% target, has dropped significantly from its 2022 peak, giving policymakers more flexibility.
3. Bank reserves are at an adequate level. The Fed now believes the banking system has sufficient liquidity, and continuing to drain funds could tighten financial conditions too much.

In Powell’s own words, the message is essentially: “We’ve withdrawn enough liquidity; now it’s time to stabilize.”

What does this mean for global markets?

This announcement represents a subtle but crucial turning point. If the Fed halts balance sheet reduction, it could mark the transition from tightening to stabilization. For global investors, this means the U.S. dollar may weaken, and liquidity conditions could improve—a scenario generally favorable for emerging markets.
For China and other Asian markets, an easing of global liquidity often boosts investor confidence and encourages capital inflows. Consequently, A-shares and Hong Kong stocks could see short-term sentiment improvement.

But don’t celebrate too soon

Despite the dovish tone, Powell did not commit to cutting interest rates. He merely suggested that the Fed might slow the pace of tightening, not reverse it entirely. Markets are now watching closely to see whether the Fed will actually cut rates later this year or simply pause for observation.

That uncertainty explains why Wall Street didn’t react positively. All three major U.S. indices closed lower after Powell’s comments. The Nasdaq led the decline, dragged down by technology stocks. NVIDIA suffered one of the largest single-day losses in corporate history, while Apple, Microsoft, and Tesla also saw sharp pullbacks.

Powell emphasized that it’s still too early to declare victory over inflation or pivot to stimulus mode. His message can be interpreted as: “We’re easing our grip, but we’re not stepping on the gas yet.”

In summary

This unexpected policy hint represents one of the most significant turning points since the Fed began tightening in 2022. It underscores the transition of the U.S. economy from an era of high inflation toward a more moderate, stable phase. Yet it also exposes the fragile balance the Fed must strike—between preventing recession and keeping inflation in check.

For now, Powell’s “stop shrinking the balance sheet” comment may be just a prelude to a broader policy shift—but whether it turns into an actual rate-cut cycle will depend on how the U.S. economy performs in the coming months.