這起被稱為「新一輪中美貿易戰升級事件」的風暴，在2025年10月中旬正式進入白熱化階段。美國參議院內約有85名參議員表示，準備支持一項授權法案，賦予總統唐納·川普（Donald Trump）對中國徵收高達500%的懲罰性關稅的權力，藉此報復中國近期對稀土及高科技產品實施的出口管制。美國財長貝森特（Janet Besant）在10月15日的記者會中指出，該提案的核心目標是「反制中國購買俄羅斯石油、支持俄方能源出口的行為」，認為這已構成「對美國國家安全與全球能源秩序的威脅」。

這場貿易對峙其實並非突如其來，而是自2025年4月起逐步升溫。當時，美國率先對中國輸美商品徵收34% 的對等關稅，聲稱中國長期存在「不公平補貼、技術強制轉移與市場封閉」等問題。中方迅速反制，對美國商品加徵同等稅率，並向世界貿易組織（WTO）正式提起訴訟，指控美方違反多邊貿易規則。

短短數週內，關稅戰便像雪球般擴大。美國於4月8日將稅率提高至84%，中國次日同步反制；4月10日，美方再度加碼至125%，導致雙邊緊張關係急速惡化。直到5月中旬，中美高層經貿會談達成部分緩和共識，美方才暫時將關稅調降至10%，全球市場也因此出現短暫喘息。

然而，這段平靜僅維持數月。2025年10月9日，中國商務部突然發布新規，對涉及稀土技術、設備及物項 的出口實施嚴格管制。稀土是美國軍工、半導體及新能源產業鏈的關鍵原料，這一舉動等同於針對美國的科技命脈「精準打擊」。美國白宮隨即強烈回應，10月10日川普宣布自 11月1日起對中國商品全面加徵100%關稅，並同步啟動關鍵軟體出口管制，禁止部分AI與工業控制軟體出口至中國。

雙方報復行動不斷升級。10月14日，中美兩國互相對對方航運船隻徵收「特別港務費」，導致全球航運企業紛紛調整航線以避開新成本。亞洲與北美間的海運價格因此暴漲超過25%，全球供應鏈壓力明顯增加。

到10月16日，國際經濟合作與發展組織（OECD）發布最新預測報告指出，若美國真的落實對華徵收高達500% 的懲罰性關稅，整體美國對中國的平均關稅將飆升至約150%，全球貿易總量恐因此萎縮 0.2%。報告同時警告，若此舉引發連鎖效應，歐盟、日本及東南亞國家可能被迫選邊站隊，全球貿易秩序將面臨新一輪動盪。

目前，中國官方尚未就美參議院的最新提案作出正式回應，但多家中國官媒已明確表態，指美方的「極端保護主義行為」不僅損害兩國經濟，也將拖累全球市場復甦。中國商務部內部消息人士則暗示，若美方進一步升級貿易戰，北京可能考慮 暫停部分稀土供應、限制航太材料出口，甚至「重新審核美資企業在華投資資格」。

這場「新冷戰式」的貿易對峙，已遠超關稅層面的經濟摩擦，更成為中美科技、能源與地緣政治博弈的延伸戰場。全球市場正屏息以待，觀察11月1日關稅新政生效後，這場經濟巨浪將如何衝擊世界經濟秩序。

This escalating confrontation, now dubbed the “New U.S.–China Trade War,” reached a critical point in mid-October 2025. Roughly 85 U.S. senators are reportedly prepared to support a bill that would authorize President Donald Trump to impose tariffs as high as 500% on Chinese imports — a retaliatory measure against Beijing’s recent restrictions on rare-earth exports and high-tech materials.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Besant stated on October 15 that the proposal aims to “counter China’s continued purchase of Russian oil and its support for Russia’s energy exports,” describing such actions as “a threat to U.S. national security and the global energy order.”

Background and escalation

This conflict didn’t arise overnight. It began in April 2025, when Washington imposed a 34% “reciprocal tariff” on Chinese goods, accusing Beijing of “unfair subsidies, forced technology transfers, and market barriers.” China immediately retaliated with an identical tariff and filed a formal complaint with the World Trade Organization (WTO), alleging the U.S. had violated multilateral trade rules.

Within days, the dispute spiraled. The U.S. raised its tariff rate to 84% on April 8, and China matched it the next day. Two days later, Washington hiked it again to 125%, prompting an equally strong countermeasure from Beijing. By mid-May, after high-level trade talks, the U.S. temporarily reduced some tariffs to 10%, bringing a brief pause to the tensions.

However, the calm was short-lived. On October 9, 2025, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced new export controls on rare-earth materials, technologies, and equipment — vital inputs for America’s defense, semiconductor, and clean-energy sectors. The move was widely seen as a direct strike at the heart of U.S. high-tech manufacturing.

In response, on October 10, President Trump declared that beginning November 1, the U.S. would impose 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods and restrict exports of “critical software,” including AI and industrial control programs, to China.

Economic fallout

The tit-for-tat measures quickly spread to other industries. On October 14, both nations slapped “special port fees” on each other’s shipping vessels, forcing global logistics firms to reroute shipments. Freight rates between Asia and North America surged by over 25%, worsening supply-chain bottlenecks.

By October 16, the OECD issued a stark warning: if the proposed 500% tariff authorization were enacted, the average U.S. tariff rate on Chinese goods would reach 150%, potentially shrinking global trade by 0.2%. The report cautioned that the shockwaves could pressure the EU, Japan, and Southeast Asian nations to take sides, triggering another round of global economic instability.

Beijing’s reaction

While Beijing has not yet issued an official response to the Senate proposal, Chinese state media have strongly condemned the move as “extreme protectionism” that would “damage both economies and derail global recovery.”
Sources within China’s Ministry of Commerce hinted that, if the U.S. escalates further, Beijing could consider suspending rare-earth exports, restricting aerospace materials, and even reassessing the operations of American firms in China.

In essence, this conflict has evolved far beyond trade. It now represents a strategic showdown over technology, energy, and geopolitical influence — a new phase of economic Cold War. As the world braces for the November 1 tariff deadline, global markets are watching closely to see just how deep this trade rupture will cut into the international economic order.