備受期待的好萊塢視覺大片《阿凡達：火與燼》（《阿凡達3》）將於2025年12月19日在中國上映，並已提前開啟預售及點映。然而，最新的預售數據顯示，該片的票房表現並不理想，與觀眾與市場原先的高度期待存在明顯落差。

《阿凡達3》自12月12日開啟預售，截至12月17日上午11時，其預售及點映票房僅約5770萬元人民幣。從數據來看，該片突破5000萬元的時間為12月16日晚，距離正式上映僅剩兩天零九小時。相比之下，其前作《阿凡達：水之道》（《阿凡達2》）的預售成績則顯得格外耀眼。《阿凡達2》於2022年12月7日開啟預售，首日便突破2000萬元。至次日12月8日，距上映尚有七天零十三小時，其預售票房就已突破5000萬元，隨後一路高歌猛進。至12月10日晚，距上映僅剩五天零十一小時，《阿凡達2》的預售票房突破1億元，最終在上映前夕12月15日晚，預售票房更是突破2億元。

《阿凡達2》的熱銷背後，有著多重市場因素加持。其上映當時正值電影市場低谷，優質內容供應相對緊張，加上距離首部《阿凡達》上映已逾十年，影迷期待值極高。首映日，各地IMAX影廳普遍一票難求，最終票房約17億元，在2022年所有影片中排名第五，也是當年票房最高的進口片。

相比之下，《阿凡達3》此次預售票房落後，直接影響此前受上映消息催化而股價上漲的部分A股公司，近期股價出現明顯回調。這也顯示，即便擁有強大IP和龐大粉絲基礎，票房表現仍受多種因素影響，包括市場熱度、內容吸引力以及觀眾對續作的新鮮感。

《阿凡達3》由美國二十世紀福克斯電影公司出品，故事時間設定在2154年，緊接《阿凡達2》結局。影片描寫薩利一家雖暫時擊退敵人，但也付出了長子犧牲的沉重代價。在悲痛尚未平息之際，潛伏的危機再度逼近，一場不可避免的決戰即將展開。

從IP和歷史票房角度看，《阿凡達》系列一直擁有巨大的號召力。根據公開數據，2009年首部《阿凡達》全球票房達30億美元，至今仍穩居影史票房冠軍，並榮獲奧斯卡金像獎等多項榮譽。《阿凡達2》全球票房超過20億美元，位列影史票房第三，充分顯示了該系列在全球影迷中的持續影響力與吸引力。然而，即便有如此光環，《阿凡達3》在中國市場的預售表現仍顯疲軟，也讓人開始重新審視續作的號召力是否能完全延續。

The highly anticipated Hollywood visual spectacle Avatar: Fire and Ash (hereafter Avatar 3) is set to premiere in China on December 19, 2025, with advance ticket sales and preview screenings already underway. However, the latest presale data indicates that the film’s box office performance is far from ideal, falling noticeably short of audience and market expectations.

Avatar 3 began presales on December 12, and as of 11 a.m. on December 17, its presale and preview box office totaled approximately 57.7 million RMB. The film surpassed 50 million RMB in presales only on the evening of December 16—just two days and nine hours before its official release. In stark contrast, its predecessor Avatar: The Way of Water (Avatar 2) achieved remarkably strong presale results. Avatar 2 opened presales on December 7, 2022, with over 20 million RMB on the first day alone. By the next day, December 8, with still seven days and thirteen hours before release, its presale box office had already exceeded 50 million RMB. The presales continued to surge, surpassing 100 million RMB by the evening of December 10, and ultimately breaking 200 million RMB on the eve of release, December 15.

Several market factors contributed to Avatar 2’s blockbuster success. The film premiered during a low point in the movie market, when high-quality content was relatively scarce. Moreover, more than a decade had passed since the first Avatar, generating enormous anticipation among fans. On opening day, IMAX theaters across the country were virtually sold out, and the film went on to gross approximately 1.7 billion RMB, ranking fifth among all films released in China in 2022 and becoming the year’s highest-grossing imported film.

By comparison, Avatar 3’s presale performance has lagged, directly impacting some A-share companies whose stock prices had previously surged on the expectation of the film’s release. The recent correction underscores that even a strong IP with a large fan base does not guarantee box office success, as factors such as market enthusiasm, content appeal, and audience freshness all play crucial roles.

Produced by 20th Century Fox, Avatar 3 is set in 2154 and continues immediately from the ending of Avatar 2. The film depicts the Sully family temporarily fending off their enemies, but at the heavy cost of their eldest son’s life. While the grief is still raw, new, lurking threats force the family toward an inevitable decisive battle.

From an IP and historical box office perspective, the Avatar franchise has long commanded massive appeal. The first Avatar (2009) grossed $3 billion USD globally, remaining the highest-grossing film of all time and earning multiple accolades, including the Academy Awards. Avatar 2 surpassed $2 billion USD worldwide, ranking third in global box office history. This demonstrates the franchise’s enduring influence and fan base. However, despite this legacy, Avatar 3’s underwhelming presale performance in China raises questions about whether the sequel can fully sustain the series’ previous momentum.