日本國內貨幣長期走貶主要受到多種因素的影響：

1.政府和央行的經濟政策會影響日幣的匯率。例如，實施貨幣寬鬆政策、低利率政策或量化寬鬆等措施可能會導致日幣貶值，因為這些政策可能會增加貨幣供應，使日幣貶值。

2.經濟的基本面，如經濟增長率、通脹率、失業率等，也會影響日幣的走勢。如果日本的經濟表現較弱，相對於其他國家而言，投資者可能會尋求其他貨幣投資，導致日幣貶值。

3.國際貿易和投資活動對日幣匯率也有影響。如果日本出口增加，外國投資者對日本的需求可能增加，進而推動日幣升值。相反，如果日本進口增加或者外國投資者撤資，可能會導致日幣貶值。

4.地緣政治事件和風險可能對日幣匯率造成影響。例如，地區衝突、恐怖主義事件、貿易戰等都可能引發投資者對避險資產的需求增加，進而推動日幣升值。

5.投資者的市場情緒和預期也會影響日幣的走勢。如果投資者對日本的經濟前景樂觀，可能會推動日幣升值；相反，如果市場對日本經濟不確定或者悲觀，可能會導致日幣貶值。

最近，日本央行為了阻止日幣持續走貶，準備要進行升息。然而，消息傳出後，1美元兌日幣卻從原本的147持續貶值到150。這是因為日幣是全球槓桿貨幣，且利率低，與美元存在利息差。國際投資客最喜歡到日本用美金計價的資產進行抵押後借錢再進行投資。由於長期的操作，導致日本成為世界第三大外匯市場。在日本的升息下，利息差變小，於是將手上持有的美元換回日幣來還債。因此，從2023年年底到2024年1月，日幣升值到1美元兌換140。然而，原本預期的升息卻沒有發生。於是投資客手上的日幣先投入日本股市。而這次確定升息後，這些資金進行償還並拿回抵押品。拿到的錢全部轉成美金後離開。

真正的關鍵在於美元如果確定降息，那些需要償還美元債務的需求就會出現。短時間內會造成其他國家匯率的下跌。雖然通常加息會造成該國匯率走高，但是重點還是要看這個貨幣所代表的資產是否有投資吸引力。日本升息只是從-0.1到0，對進行財務槓桿的誘因還是存在。

The long-term depreciation of the Japanese currency, the yen, is mainly influenced by several factors:

1. Government and central bank economic policies can affect the yen's exchange rate. Measures such as implementing loose monetary policies, low-interest-rate policies, or quantitative easing may lead to yen depreciation because these policies could increase the money supply, causing the yen to devalue.

2. Economic fundamentals, such as economic growth rates, inflation rates, unemployment rates, etc., also affect the yen's trend. If Japan's economic performance is weaker compared to other countries, investors may seek other currency investments, leading to yen depreciation.

3. International trade and investment activities also influence the yen's exchange rate. If Japan's exports increase, the demand for Japan from foreign investors may increase, thereby driving yen appreciation. Conversely, if Japan's imports increase or foreign investors withdraw investments, it may lead to yen depreciation.

4. Geopolitical events and risks can also impact the yen's exchange rate. Events such as regional conflicts, terrorism, trade wars, etc., may trigger an increased demand for safe-haven assets among investors, thereby driving yen appreciation.

5. Investor market sentiment and expectations also affect the yen's trend. If investors are optimistic about Japan's economic prospects, it may drive yen appreciation; conversely, if the market is uncertain or pessimistic about Japan's economy, it may lead to yen depreciation.

Recently, the central bank of Japan intervened to prevent the yen from continuing to depreciate by preparing for an interest rate hike. However, after the news came out, the exchange rate of 1 US dollar to Japanese yen continued to depreciate from the original 147 to 150. This is because the yen is a global leverage currency with low interest rates, and there is an interest rate differential with the US dollar.  International investors prefer to borrow money in yen by mortgaging assets denominated in US dollars for investment. Due to long-term operations, Japan has become the world's third-largest foreign exchange market. With Japan's interest rate hike, the interest rate differential has decreased, leading to a conversion of US dollars back into yen to repay debts. Therefore, from the end of 2023 to January 2024, the yen appreciated to 140 yen per US dollar. However, the expected interest rate hike did not occur. Consequently, investors initially invested yen in the Japanese stock market. After the interest rate hike was confirmed, these funds were used for repayment and retrieval of collateral. All the money obtained was converted into US dollars and exited.

The real key is if the US dollar is confirmed to cut interest rates, the demand for repaying US dollar-denominated debt will emerge. This will cause a short-term decline in the exchange rates of other countries. Although interest rate hikes typically lead to an increase in the currency exchange rate, it is essential to consider whether the assets represented by this currency are attractive for investment. Japan's interest rate hike is only from -0.1 to 0, but the incentive for financial leverage still exists.

照片:DALLE3