為何中國直到現在都無法武力犯台?

2024-06-01

毛澤東曾對台灣的金門和馬祖發起攻擊,史稱823砲戰。中國長期以來一直想要通過武力統一台灣,但未能成功,原因有以下幾點:

美國的軍事干預:在韓戰後期和冷戰期間,美國與台灣建立緊密的軍事同盟。1954年,美台簽署《中美共同防禦條約》,美國承諾協防台灣,並在台海危機中多次派遣第七艦隊進駐台灣海峽,嚴重威脅中國的軍事行動。

國際壓力與外交:國際社會普遍反對通過武力改變現狀,特別是在冷戰期間,國際社會不希望看到在台海爆發大規模衝突。中國的武力統一計劃面臨著來自聯合國和各國政府的外交壓力。

台灣自身的防禦能力:台灣在過去幾十年中,持續加強自己的軍事防禦能力,包括購買現代化武器裝備、提升軍隊訓練水平和建立強大的防空體系。台灣軍隊的防禦能力使得中國難以輕易達成武力統一的目標。

經濟發展與內部穩定:中國在改革開放後,將重心轉向經濟建設和內部穩定。武力攻台可能會引發嚴重的經濟和社會問題,甚至可能導致內部的不穩定。因此,經濟發展成為優先考慮的事項,而不是冒險發動戰爭。

兩岸關係的變化:自1980年代以來,兩岸關係有所緩和,特別是在經濟交流和民間往來方面取得一定進展。兩岸之間的經濟互動和交流在某種程度上減少武力衝突的可能性。

現代戰爭的複雜性:現代戰爭涉及的技術和戰略極其複雜,且全球資訊傳播速度極快。任何大規模的軍事行動都會迅速引起國際關注和干預,導致戰爭結果難以預測。

總結來說,中國未能成功武力統一台灣,主要是由於外部軍事干預、國際壓力、台灣自身防禦能力、經濟發展優先、兩岸關係變化及現代戰爭的複雜性等多種因素共同作用的結果。

Mao Zedong once launched attacks on Taiwan's Kinmen and Matsu islands, known as the 823 Artillery Bombardment. China has long sought to unify Taiwan by force, but has been unsuccessful for several reasons:

U.S. Military Intervention: During the later stages of the Korean War and the Cold War, the U.S. established a close military alliance with Taiwan. In 1954, the U.S. and Taiwan signed the Sino-American Mutual Defense Treaty, in which the U.S. pledged to defend Taiwan. During various Taiwan Strait crises, the U.S. repeatedly deployed the Seventh Fleet to the Taiwan Strait, posing a significant threat to Chinese military actions.

International Pressure and Diplomacy: The international community generally opposes changing the status quo by force, especially during the Cold War when the world did not want to see a large-scale conflict in the Taiwan Strait. China's plans for military unification faced diplomatic pressure from the United Nations and various governments.

Taiwan's Defensive Capabilities: Over the past few decades, Taiwan has continuously strengthened its military defenses, including purchasing modern weaponry, enhancing troop training, and establishing a robust air defense system. Taiwan's defensive capabilities make it difficult for China to achieve unification through military means.

Economic Development and Internal Stability: After the reform and opening up, China shifted its focus to economic development and internal stability. A military attack on Taiwan could trigger severe economic and social problems, potentially leading to internal instability. Thus, economic development became a priority over the risky option of war.

Changes in Cross-Strait Relations: Since the 1980s, cross-strait relations have somewhat eased, especially in terms of economic exchanges and civilian interactions. Economic interactions and exchanges between the two sides have, to some extent, reduced the possibility of military conflict.

Complexity of Modern Warfare: Modern warfare involves highly complex technologies and strategies, and global information spreads rapidly. Any large-scale military action would quickly attract international attention and intervention, making the outcome of the war unpredictable.

In summary, China's failure to unify Taiwan by force is the result of multiple factors, including external military intervention, international pressure, Taiwan's defensive capabilities, the prioritization of economic development, changes in cross-strait relations, and the complexity of modern warfare.

 

照片:DALLE3