俄羅斯對烏克蘭開戰的主要原因+目前戰況

2023-12-18

俄羅斯對烏克蘭開戰的主要原因:

地緣政治和影響力:烏克蘭位於俄羅斯的附近,對俄羅斯具有戰略重要性。保持對烏克蘭的影響力可以在地緣政治上提供一定的優勢。

民族和文化聯繫:俄羅斯和烏克蘭有相當複雜的歷史和文化聯繫。一部分俄羅斯政治和民眾認為,烏克蘭是俄羅斯的一部分,或者應該在俄羅斯的影響下。

地區爭端:有一些地區(如克里米亞)存在爭端,俄羅斯試圖在這些地區擴大其勢力。

對西方的反應:烏克蘭接近歐洲,並且曾表達對加入歐盟跟北約的興趣。俄羅斯擔心這樣的走向會影響其在該地區的影響力,因此採取行動阻止或干擾。

內部政治因素:俄羅斯內部政治因素可能也在這一決定中扮演角色,這包括政治領導層的內部考慮和國內問題。俄羅斯也長期利用擴張領土的戰爭來穩定領導人在國內的地位。

在烏俄戰爭的六百多天裡,局勢由開局時的烏克蘭挨打轉變為大規模反攻。如果不是俄羅斯軍隊在開戰初期埋下地雷並挖掘壕溝,俄軍前期的戰果可能早已徹底喪失。目前,兩方進入對峙的消耗戰,似乎回到2014年的僵局狀態。

開戰前的場景充斥著飛機和導彈,但如今已不常出現。在北約提供的情報和武器支援下,烏克蘭軍隊對俄羅斯陸海空三軍造成重創。若沒有至少十年的時間,難以恢復到戰前的實力水平。

儘管烏克蘭海軍的戰鬥力幾乎為零,但卻成功將號稱世界第二的俄羅斯海軍嚇得不敢出港。僅靠兩枚海王星導彈,就成功擊沉莫斯科巡航艦,之後還摧毀4000噸以上的軍艦的一半。雙方的海上戰力差距已經不大。

俄羅斯的蘇愷35、蘇愷30、蘇愷24和蘇愷25等機型遭到烏克蘭大量擊落。在烏克蘭上空,這些機種已經很少見蹤跡。陸軍方面,俄羅斯主力也受到極大損害。開戰前亮相的T80和T72坦克現在幾乎都消失了。

烏克蘭所獲得的主要武器多為中低防禦型。現在的戰局之所以持續,並不是因為烏克蘭有多強大,而是因為俄羅斯的實力沒有達到預期的強大程度。

The Main Reasons for Russia's War on Ukraine:

Geopolitics and Influence: Ukraine is strategically important to Russia due to its proximity, and maintaining influence over Ukraine provides geopolitical advantages.

Ethnic and Cultural Connections: Russia and Ukraine share a complex history and cultural ties. Some in Russian politics and the population believe that Ukraine is part of Russia or should be under Russian influence.

Regional Disputes: Disputes exist in certain regions, such as Crimea, where Russia aims to expand its influence.

Reaction to the West: Ukraine's interest in joining the European Union and NATO concerns Russia, as it may impact Russian influence in the region. Russia takes actions to prevent or interfere with such developments.

Internal Political Factors: Russia's internal politics likely play a role in the decision, including considerations within the political leadership and domestic issues. Russia has historically used territorial expansion as a means to stabilize the leader's position domestically.

In the over 600 days of the Ukraine-Russia war, the situation has transitioned from Ukraine initially being on the defensive to a large-scale counteroffensive. If not for the landmines and trenches laid by the Russian military in the early stages, Russia's early gains might have been lost entirely. Currently, both sides are engaged in a protracted war of attrition, resembling the stalemate of 2014.

The scenes of planes and missiles filling the skies before the war have become rare. With intelligence and weapons support from NATO, Ukraine has inflicted significant damage on Russia's land, sea, and air forces. Without at least a decade, it will be challenging for Russia to recover to pre-war levels.

Despite Ukraine's almost nonexistent naval combat capability, it has managed to deter the Russian navy, considered the second-largest globally, from venturing out. Using only two Neptune missiles, Ukraine successfully sank the Moscow cruiser and destroyed half of the 4000-ton and above warships. The disparity in naval power between the two sides is now minimal.

Various Russian aircraft, including Su-35, Su-30, Su-24, and Su-25, have been extensively shot down by Ukraine. These aircraft types are rarely seen in Ukrainian airspace. On the ground, Russia's main forces have also suffered considerable damage, and tanks like the T-80 and T-72, showcased before the war, are now almost nonexistent.

The primary weapons Ukraine has acquired are of medium to low defense capability. The ongoing conflict is not a testament to Ukraine's strength but rather a reflection of Russia's failure to achieve the anticipated level of dominance.