川普的再次當選會對烏克蘭戰爭產生重大影響，會改變美國對此衝突的政策態度和資源投入，進而影響國際社會的現況。

首先，川普一直對美國的軍事和財政援助持謹慎態度，尤其在涉及他認為「與美國利益不直接相關」的海外事務上。在2024年競選過程中已多次強調「美國優先」的理念，暗示對烏克蘭的援助可能會被削減或重新考慮。川普認為，美國的資源應該優先用於本土問題，如基礎建設、經濟發展跟非法移民防堵等。這樣的立場可能會讓他對烏克蘭的援助縮手，甚至會直接推動烏克蘭與俄羅斯進行談判，達成他所認為的「迅速」解決方案。

此外，川普對於歐洲國家在烏克蘭戰爭中的角色抱持懷疑態度，認為美國不應該單獨承擔這場衝突的主要負擔，而歐洲國家應該更加積極投入。他的再次當選會促使他向歐洲國家施壓，要求他們加大對烏克蘭的援助，以減少美國的財政負擔。這種要求可能會導致美歐之間出現分歧，特別是如果歐洲國家不願意或無法承擔更大的責任。會進一步削弱西方陣營在烏克蘭問題上的團結，並讓俄羅斯有機可乘。

對於俄羅斯，川普一向表現出相對緩和的態度。他過去曾多次表示，應該以更務實的方式來處理美俄關係，這也讓部分人擔心他會在烏克蘭問題上對俄羅斯讓步，甚至可能會試圖重啟與俄羅斯的談判。川普會希望透過談判，來尋求一個他所謂的「和平」解決方案，即便這可能不符合烏克蘭的完全利益。這樣的舉動可能會讓烏克蘭感到失望，同時削弱他們對抗俄羅斯的士氣和動力。

總體來說，川普的當選可能會讓美國對烏克蘭的支持變得更加有限或有條件，進一步影響戰爭的走向。這種政策變化不僅會使烏克蘭面臨更大壓力，也讓國際社會在烏克蘭問題上失去一致性，導致俄羅斯得到更多戰略空間並最終取得勝利。

Trump’s reelection would likely have a significant impact on the Ukraine war, altering the U.S. policy stance and resource commitment to this conflict, thereby affecting the current state of international affairs.

First, Trump has consistently held a cautious view on American military and financial aid, especially concerning overseas matters that he views as "not directly related to American interests." Throughout the 2024 campaign, he repeatedly emphasized his "America First" approach, suggesting that aid to Ukraine might be reduced or reconsidered. Trump believes that American resources should prioritize domestic issues, such as infrastructure, economic development, and illegal immigration control. This stance might lead him to scale back assistance to Ukraine or even push for direct negotiations between Ukraine and Russia to reach what he considers a "swift" resolution.

Additionally, Trump is skeptical of Europe’s role in the Ukraine conflict, feeling that the U.S. should not bear the primary burden of this war alone and that European countries should be more actively involved. His reelection would likely prompt him to pressure European countries to increase their support for Ukraine to alleviate the U.S. financial burden. Such demands could create rifts between the U.S. and Europe, especially if European nations are unwilling or unable to assume greater responsibility. This would further weaken the Western coalition’s unity on the Ukraine issue, giving Russia an advantage.

As for Russia, Trump has historically adopted a relatively moderate approach. He has often stated that U.S.-Russia relations should be handled more pragmatically, raising concerns that he might make concessions on Ukraine or even attempt to reopen negotiations with Russia. Trump would likely seek what he terms a "peaceful" resolution through diplomacy, even if it might not fully align with Ukraine’s interests. Such a move could disappoint Ukraine and weaken its morale and resolve to resist Russian aggression.

Overall, Trump’s reelection could make U.S. support for Ukraine more limited or conditional, further influencing the trajectory of the war. This shift in policy would not only place greater pressure on Ukraine but could also lead to a loss of international consensus on the Ukraine issue, ultimately granting Russia more strategic space and potentially enabling it to achieve a favorable outcome.

照片:DALLE3