自今年11月以來，俄羅斯盧布開始持續貶值，其跌勢之快超乎市場的預期。本週三歐洲交易時段，美元持續走強，兌換俄羅斯盧布的匯率大幅上漲逾4%，突破110盧布大關，創下自俄烏衝突爆發以來的最高水平。

在盧布貶值的背景下，投資者紛紛將資金從股票市場轉向存款。今年以來，俄羅斯股市累計下跌超過20%，而盧布的持續下跌進一步加劇資金外流的趨勢。為避免資金持續外流，俄羅斯央行將基準利率設置在20%以上，意味著存款的收益率也高於20%。這種高回報企圖吸引更多投資者選擇以盧布存款作為避險手段，但成效仍須觀察。

此外，盧布貶值的主要原因包括俄烏衝突帶來的地緣政治風險、國際制裁的壓力以及能源收入的波動。雖然俄羅斯央行試圖通過貨幣政策來穩定盧布匯率，但外部環境的持續惡化使得市場信心依然不足。未來盧布走勢如何，仍需觀察俄羅斯經濟政策與國際局勢的進一步發展。

Since November of this year, the Russian ruble has been experiencing continuous depreciation, with its rapid decline surpassing market expectations. During European trading on Wednesday, the U.S. dollar continued to strengthen, with the exchange rate against the Russian ruble surging by more than 4%, breaking the 110 rubles per dollar mark. This is the highest level recorded since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Amid the ruble's depreciation, investors have been shifting their funds from the stock market to deposits. Russian equities have fallen by over 20% this year, and the ongoing decline of the ruble has further exacerbated capital outflows. To stem the tide of outflows, the Russian central bank has set the benchmark interest rate above 20%, ensuring deposit returns exceed this threshold. The goal of such high yields is to attract more investors to opt for ruble deposits as a safe haven, although the effectiveness of this measure remains to be seen.

The main factors driving the ruble's depreciation include geopolitical risks stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, the pressure of international sanctions, and fluctuations in energy revenues. Although the Russian central bank has attempted to stabilize the ruble's exchange rate through monetary policy, the continued deterioration of external conditions has left market confidence fragile. The future trajectory of the ruble will depend on the further development of Russia's economic policies and the international geopolitical landscape.

照片:DALLE3